Another warm windy day is on the way today. A few clouds will pass overhead this morning, then mostly sunny skies will return after the Noon hour. Windy & warm with highs in the low to mid 70s today.

A warm front will move north to near the Nebraska-Kansas border this evening. Low clouds will develop over most of the Heartland, as we stay north of this front. Lows will be very mild, in the mid 50s!

Thursday holds the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms late in the day. The final position of that warm front will show who will have the 'best' chance for severe storms. There can be an increased threat for tornadoes right along & north of a warm front, as thunderstorms move from south to north & cross that front.

The early morning forecast from the Storm Prediction Center, places us in a slight risk Thursday Evening.

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Here's a look at their probability forecast.....

Note that extreme SE Nebraska into NW Missouri & SW Iowa are targeted. The NAM forecast of CAPE by 7PM Thursday shows a target area over eastern Nebraska:

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This is the 0Z NAM forecast for 7 PM Thursday. Notice the tongue of higher CAPEs ( over 1000 ) stretching up from west Texas & Oklahoma, up into eastern Nebraska. Also, the 0Z NAM LID Index forecast is indicating that there is an area of little resistance to lifting the air and forming storms over the same general area:

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Quite a colorful map, no? Basically, if the index is >3°, the atmosphere is capped, or lift above a certain level above the ground is inhibited & storms will not form. If the number is less than 1°, then there is no cap, and storms have a very good opportunity to fire and grow quickly. The area of green, yellow & red, showing a forecast LID of <1°, is again over eastern Nebraska.

Guess I'll be watching the skies carefully tomorrow late in the day.

Jeff.