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Later today (Friday, Jan. 28), the Douglas County Election Commissioner is expected to announce the results of 5,000 or so absentee ballots that were turned in on election day.
Experts say it won't be enough to sway the election but it will raise voter turnout by a couple percentage points.
Absentee/Early voting has already accounted for 11,287 votes. Of those, 5,938 said Yes to the recall. 5,349 said No. Out of all those votes, the Yes side gained 589 votes.
If you play the percentages, the Yes side would gain approximately 300 votes from the 5,000 outstanding. In order for the results to change, the Yes side needs a gain of 1,643 which statisticians say is unlikely.
Douglas County saw its largest voter turnout ever in the 2008 General Election -- 73% of registered voters cast ballots. I like to think of it in these terms: more than 7 of every 10 registered voters -- voted.
If my math is correct, the turnout for the recall will be 33% or 3 of every 10 voters -- voted. That's not much better than the mayoral election in 2009 between Suttle and Daub where turnout stood at 31%.
Experts are a bit baffled. There were many passionate people on both sides. The ballot wasn't complicated or long. There was only one question.
It has left many wondering -- if people don't get fired up about this sort of election where voting absentee is easier than ever -- what will it take to get people to the polls?
A couple of people at the Suttle Camp relayed a story from a pollster who told them that "angry people just don't vote."
I would think they would be the first in line.
The experts' conventional wisdom was wrong on this and in the opposite direction. Of the 5,255 absentee ballot that came in on Election Day -- more of them were in Mayor Suttle's favor. His lead increased by 487 votes.