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This weekend is one of the most anticipated holidays of the year, 4th of July. Fireworks, BBQs, friends and family time...it all comes together.  The only thing that can stop our fun is the weather. Storms are not conducive to firework displays. There happen to be two chances for storms over the next week. One arrives Thursday, and one settles in for the weekend.

First I want to comment on the comfortable mornings we have been having.  We were able to eliminate the tropical weather after Saturday's cold front. The past few mornings have been perfect for morning runs. I got in nearly 15 miles Sunday morning and I think my time reflected the cool conditions.

Wednesday morning will be the coolest of the week.  Temperatures north of us this morning were in the middle and lower 50's and that is where we plan to have as we kick off the middle of the week.

A view of temperatures this morning in the northern Midwest:

Surface Conditions 7AM Tuesday

We are under a northwesterly flow pattern, and it is common for a few small systems to creep across the Midwest as they ride the upper level winds. There happens to be a small disturbance doing just that on Wednesday.

Here is a view of the rainfall excepted by 1AM Thursday. I believe Omaha will receive the trailing edge of this complex, which means a soggy start to Thursday.

12Z NAM 6 hour Rainfall Estimate 1AM Thursday

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined this forecasted MCS as an area of possible severe weather. Hail, wind, you know the drill. Right now, eastern Nebraska is not in the outlook. I think we will receive rain from the system, but probably after it has lost its steam.

Day 2 Convective Outlook 7AM Wed. - 7AM Thur.

The track of our weekend rain is still undetermined.  Only a few models go out that far right now, and those that do have the bulk of the rain south of us. Saturday will probably be cloudy, nothing like our Tuesday and Wednesday. There may be a few showers and storms, but whether or not they will but a damper on our activities has yet to be determined. Stay tuned to the forecast for the latest on our holiday outlook.

~Andrea